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2008 Economic and Investment Outlook The decline in the value of existing homes is what will cause the 2008 recession and cause it to be the most severe recession since the early 1980s (although not all that bad by historical standards). The bulk of the average American's savings is in their home and their net worth is decreasing. Making Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Work for You Exchange traded funds are index funds which have advantages over open-end index mutual funds. ETFs trade all day long on the stock exchanges, may be purchased through any broker, have lower fund expenses than mutual funds, and have less likelihood of generating unwanted taxable gains than mutual funds. Indexing for Passive Aggressive Investors Since their beginning, index funds have expanded their breath. You can find a fund which tracks any of the major indices and most industry sectors, such as health care and technology. The first cousin of index funds, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), do the same thing-they track indices. Recession Investing And The Housing Market Housing market problems are not limited to new home sales. The value of your home and the market for sales of existing homes is falling. By how much and for how long is the big question. Mr. Greenspan's Investments In 2030, Mr. Greenspan forecasts the real U.S. GDP will be 75% greater than today. That may sound like a big number but it's only 2.5% annual compound growth, well within historical norms. The Economic Crises of 2008 Given the run up in housing prices, a 10% correction is not out of the question but it could put the economy into a tailspin. Why? Homeowners have been taking out the increase in the value of their homes through home equity loans and/or refinancing with higher principal balances. AI: Alpha and Index Funds Alpha and index fund investing makes a great deal of sense. You know what to expect in terms of risk and return when you invest in an index fund. Having a portion of your portfolio in index funds leaves you free to concentrate your investment time and energy (think alpha waves) on those investments which can make a difference. Gut Check Time-How To Invest and Not Lose Sleep Investing is not an emotional decision, it takes hard work and discipline, but if you worry too much about an investment, it isn't right for you. Speculate For Growth, Not For Income Funds that invest in bank loans, junk bonds, and other low-rated or unrated debt instruments, or employ leverage to enhance their returns are too risky for the average investor. Breaking Down the Financial Breakdown The housing market was headed for a correction regardless of the events taking place in the subprime market. New home starts were running at twice the historical average during 2003-2006. Yielding to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Income is hard to come by these days. Treasuries are yielding less than 5%. Have you considered Real Estate mutual funds? Many have current yields in the 5-8% range (primarily REIT-Real Estate Investment Trust-funds). Leverage Land Mines Simply put, leverage magnifies your gain or loss and, since you're borrowing money which must be repaid, you can lose more than your entire investment (the investment and the loan amount). A Good Long Term Strategy Planning your your long-term financial future.

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